Second Debate Advantage: Romney or Obama?

by Nate Mauch


1. This is a town hall format and from the start people have said Mitt is going to be at his weakest in this setting, and thus lowered expectations slightly. I believe that plays into our favor because when you tell Mitt he can't do something very well he tends to surprise. He's practiced town halls since selecting Paul Ryan and he's held press conferences, both of which Obama has NOT done at all during this campaign. Advantage: Tie

2. Libya, Libya, Libya - I'm hoping that once again the first question is about Libya because if so Mitt will pretty much put Obama on the defensive from the very start. He needs to look him in the eye and demand he tell the people in that town hall the truth about Libya, and tell all those watching the truth. He needs to attack on this hard, but his attack can't be about him, it must be that the American people deserve nothing less than the absolute truth. Paul Ryan obviously had a strategy not to be aggressive and let Biden be Biden and kill himself, but Mitt won't make that mistake and will attack and not let him or the moderator off the hook. Advantage: Mitt

3. Obama has said he's not going to be polite and to me that means he intends to come out similar to Biden. It also means he plans on going after Mitt personally on the "47%" and the silly tax returns that only they care about. Mitt has struggled thus far with answers to both of those issues and that's the only reason they worked at all, so I hope they have finally found an answer to respond with. What would I do? I'd use these new personal stories he's started using since the convention to counter the false narrative that he doesn't care about people, and state clearly looking into the camera "the truth is I care about 100% of the people and that's why I'm running." As far as the tax returns, I'd say "why is it people are supposed to care more about my personal finances than they are about how you're spending and wasting their money and bankrupting their kids and grand kids futures?" Advantage: Obama (unless Mitt has answers for them finally)

4. Economy should be easy. Just repeat that this nonsense of a 5 trillion tax cut is just that, nonsense. I'm fully convinced there is absolutely no way Obama has a chance on any economic questions because he's immediately at a disadvantage. He's the one with the abysmal record to defend and quite honestly its indefensible. If Mitt does exactly the same as last time and prosecutes that record while highlighting his experience we should see. Huge key to Mitt's success here is highlighting his bi-partisan experience in MA, the Indies LOVE that. Advantage: Mitt

5. Wild card. Both sides are extremely concerned with the moderator and how she's going to conduct herself, or whether she will follow the preset rules, unlike Martha Raddatz. Hey, I'm not a huge conspiracy theorist but its not a secret the media and Candy Crowley are Obama supporters, and the voters in attendance are selected by Gallup. Yes, the same gallup that Axelrod threatened and suddenly all of their polls swing to Obama and they kept using RV's instead of LV's later than they ever have before. If she tries interrupting Mitt like Raddatz did to Paul (to the tune of 34 times) Mitt must channel his inner Newt Gingrich and call her out. No need to debate 2 Democrats again like Paul Ryan had to do. Advantage: Tie

I think Mitt is in the drivers seat but must win decisively again to keep up the momentum and enthusiasm. I think Obama is on the ropes and close to being defeated but we can't leave it up to the judges, we must knock him out. A few reasons I think he's nearly done include the fact that in the battleground states there's only 1 where he's over 50% (WI). He's reduced ads and ad buys in Florida over the weekend signaling he thinks his chances are slim there and in VA we are out ahead performing way better in early voting and Obama is way down in the same regard. That means our 3-2-1 victory strategy is in play! We needed to win FL, VA, and OH (3), take back NC and IN (2), and win one other state from CO, NV, IA, NH, WI, MI, PA. At this point, I see us winning Ohio, CO, NV, and possibly NH. That's why I say Mitt needs to go for the knockout because we're on the cusp of victory. I'm a big MMA fan and you learn early on NEVER LEAVE THE FIGHT IN THE HANDS OF THE JUDGES, WACKY THINGS ALMOST ALWAYS HAPPEN.


It's my belief that if Obama isn't at 50% or above in a battleground going into the Election Day he will almost inevitably lose each one of those states. There's a reason undecided voters typically break hard for the challenger... They've had 4 years to decide to vote Obama again and if after 4 years they still haven't decided to vote for him, they will almost always decide to give someone else a chance. If the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results, then its no wonder they choose to break that cycle.

I'd also add that it all comes down to Ohio. I'm not convinced Mitt can win WI or MI although I obviously hope I'm wrong. In Ohio, there's a definite trend already playing itself out and it's on our side. In early voting Dem requests for ballots are significantly down, and I'm talking down around 30% in Cuyahoga County, the Dem stronghold housing Cleveland. In 2008 I believe Obama had around a 250,000 vote advantage in early voting, but this year Dems have about 160,000 less reg voters and Republicans have about 35,000 more. That pretty much undercuts that advantage now doesn't it? Oh, purely anecdotal but you should see these crowds he's getting in Ohio! I'm talking a town of 20,000 having 10,000 show up when they only expected 1,000! Obama only gets crowds like that at universities like stupid liberal Wisconsin-Madison. "There's a growing crescendo of enthusiasm here in Ohio and across the country for this campaign." - Mitt

Heck, I'm no fortune teller nor can I see into the future whatsoever, but I see something taking hold. When a Republican is only down 47-43 in MINNESOTA we could see a major landslide in our favor, but it completely depends on these final debates, especially on Tuesday. Lose this debate and Obama regains much of those losses, win this debate we continue that momentum and extend leads forcing him to make tough spending decisions in states he did not expect he'd have to defend.

I'm optimistic, cautiously optimistic.